世界葡萄酒作物急剧下降

很少有法国葡萄酒生长会记得2021年。今年，法国记录了自1957年以来的最小葡萄酒收获。由于欧洲大部分地区的挑战，今年的葡萄酒量较少，包括晚期春季霜冻，冰雹，干旱，藤蔓疾病和野火。

Speaking from Paris last week about the wine world's 2021 crop, Pau Roca, the general director of the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV), delivered a mixed bag of news. In addition to France's no-good, very bad year, the crops in Spain and Italy both dipped 9 percent. "The year 2021 proved to be very unfortunate for the three largest wine-producing countries in the E.U.—Italy, Spain and France, which account for 45 percent of the world's production," said Roca. Global wine production was below average for the third year in a row.

但这没有理由跑到您的角落葡萄酒商店并开始恐慌购买。南半球享有丰收，其他地区也很好。全球的葡萄酒生产商不会看到价格上涨。他们只需要在发行时更具创造力。

But one note of anxiety does linger: Many of the crises that hit regions this year can be traced back to climate change. Roca and others believe the time for vintners to adapt and evolve is already here, unless they want this year's small crop to become the new normal.

A brutal year for Europe's biggest producers

In the Northern Hemisphere, France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Austria, Croatia and Slovenia all suffered lower yields in 2021. It is too early to determine the economic fallout for the affected growers, but it could well be dramatic and heartbreaking.

在4月7日弗罗斯特（Frost）袭击的意大利，马尔凯西·安提诺里（Marchesi Antinori）报告收益率下降了15％。“ 2021在质量方面一直是一个杰出的年份，而收益率略低于平均水平，”葡萄酒观众。They farm in enough places that not all were impacted. Some of their vines in Chianti Classico and Bolgheri were spared "thanks to the altitude in Tignanello and the proximity of the Mediterranean Sea in Bolgheri."

In France, Alsace was ravaged by weather-related disease. "We had anticipated a decent crop, with Alsace seemingly今年四月被严重的霜冻所幸免," said Jean Frédéric Hugel, 13th-generation vintner at Hugel et Fils. "But the damp spring and early summer caused most of the damage, with mildew ravaging the vineyards." The mildew was followed by a three-month drought. This made for "extremely good quality and a very sound harvest, but unfortunately further lower crop," said Hugel. He said their yields are down 55 percent compared with 2020’s.

但是其他欧盟国家，例如德国，匈牙利和罗马尼亚，享受着更好的天气和保险杠作物。欧洲仍将提供全球2021年葡萄酒的58％。

The Southern Hemisphere, with the exception of New Zealand, recorded its highest yield ever following relatively favorable climatic conditions. Nearly a quarter of the world's 2021 vintage will come from the Southern Hemisphere.

Meanwhile, structural changes in China are skewing global figures. China came roaring onto the wine scene over a decade ago, showing every indication that its ambition was to dominate global wine production. But since 2016, the Chinese government has overseen production cuts of more than 50 percent—from 1.32 billion liters (equal to 147 million cases) in 2016 to 660 million liters (73 million cases) in 2020. Figures for 2021 are not yet available. This is a political and economic decision, and the trend is unlikely to change course unless Beijing decides otherwise.

我们现在应该库存吗？

No. This is a problem for the trade, not consumers. "Vintages like this happen every now and then and are unpredictable," said Antinori. "On our side, we will do our best, distribution-wise."

Some wines might be scarce, depending on their inventory and distribution choices. "I think that, more than any other sector, viticulture has always been very resilient; it's in every farmer's nature. Especially in our case, given the very long history and tradition handed down generation after generation, we are used to deal with these kind of situations and therefore to handle a variation of 15 percent to 20 percent is part of the game," said Antinori.

Vintners葡萄酒观众与之交谈更加担心以前的年份进入市场。供应链中断和与大流行有关的业务减少，继续困扰着葡萄酒行业，港口卸载的集装箱，卡车司机的匮乏和liming招待所。酿造葡萄酒的成本将增加，因为某些人的运输，能源和其他商品的价格稀缺，每个人的运输价格和其他商品价格上涨。

休格尔说，对消费者的影响将受到限制，“由于没有生产商正在考虑通过价格上涨来弥补失误的损失。”在美国，即使通货膨胀率在10月提高了6％的总价格，但酒精价格实际上略有下跌。

Long-term concerns

虽然最糟糕的大流行在我们身后，但对于地球的天气来说，这也不能说同样的话。根据世界气象组织（WMO）的最新报告，气候变化使极端天气事件更有可能。这意味着业务中断，农作物失败，流离失所的人群以及受热波，干旱，极端降雨，山洪，野火，野火和害虫所造成的生态系统受损。种植葡萄酒也不例外。

"The provisional WMO State of the Global Climate 2021 report draws from the latest scientific evidence to show how our planet is changing before our eyes,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres at COP26. “From the ocean depths to mountaintops, from melting glaciers to relentless extreme weather events, ecosystems and communities around the globe are being devastated. COP26 must be a turning point for people and planet."

虽然COP26可能是政治领导人的转折点，但葡萄酒贸易中的许多人已经开始了可持续未来的枢纽。“该行业将不得不适应。是adapting, it是弹性。”罗卡说。

Clonal selection, disease and drought-resistant grape varieties—these are just a handful of the ways scientists and vintners are adapting. "The plant is so adaptable, we have so many varieties and genetic diversity," said Roca.

Grapegrowers have介绍了实验,更resilient varieties into commercial production。Producers are用紧凑的地球建造酒窖,尝试实验建筑设计,experimenting with carbon captureand营救旧品种。

欧洲种植者还拥有一个新的平台，称为Med-gold。在欧盟的帮助下该计划使用大数据和AI来帮助种植者“预测并减少气候变化的不利影响”。该计划由欧盟的研究与创新计划资助，并提供气候服务，例如有关种植者特定地点的天气的短期和长期预测。罗卡说：“这是大量数据。”“我们必须对所有解决方案开放。”

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