Sweden’s wine market is very much one of solid success – but one whose growth over the next few years may well be confined to ‘hot’ areas rather than category-wide.
瑞典拥有成熟市场的所有标志: good – and relatively stable brand awareness, a loyal base of regular consumers and a willingness to trade up. New trends can also ‘catch fire’, thanks in large part to the ubiquity of Systembolaget, the state-owned monopoly retailer, and its ability to implement thorough and consistent merchandising strategies.
然而，也有一些令人担忧的原因 - 最著名的迹象表明葡萄酒市场接近峰值或已经达到顶峰 - 并且其最常规的消费者变得越来越保守，实验性越来越少。
Sweden has a reasonably high wine engagement. Just under half the population (3.8m people) are classified as regular wine drinkers – meaning they drink the product at least once a month. This is half a million fewer than in 2017, though the latter bad news is somewhat mitigated by the fact that the number of those drinking wine once a week or more has broadly held steady over the same period. Thus, a higher percentage of the overall total – 66% – now drink wine on an at-least weekly basis.
Overall consumption has, perhaps unsurprisingly, followed the number of total drinkers, showing a gentle decline in 2021, compared to 2020, from 25.1m cases to 24.9m. This is hardly a cause for panic and is, admittedly, comparing two Covid-affected years. But it’s worth noting that both beer and spirits grew over the same period.
Another key element is the strong influence of Boomers. The over-55s account for just over half of all the wine drunk in Sweden. They are a loyal cohort, and the group most likely to drink wine on a daily or weekly basis. But they are also more price-sensitive than other demographics.
And since half of them ‘know what they like and tend to stick to what they know’, this can make it harder for new brands, regions, styles or formats to break in.
Nonetheless, spend per-bottle in the off-trade has risen 4-6% since 2019. This may be inflation-driven, or it may be genuine premiumisation. Certainly, retailers reported more big-ticket (€50+) purchases during Covid, so some of this ‘affordable treating’ behaviour may be continuing. Millennials (aged 25-39) are likely to be driving much of the uptick. As a group they consistently spend 5-10% more per bottle than other demographics, whatever the occasion for which they are buying it.
The question, perhaps, is whether this premiumisation trend can survive economic pressures. Swedes are currently ‘confident in their ability to manage their finances’ going forward (a whopping plus net 60% of respondents), but shoppers are also prudently seeking out more special offers and spending less on everyday goods. Few expect to be better off in a year’s time.
如果在瑞典消费者和葡萄酒行业中都可以理解一定程度的谨慎，那么至少一个领域可以充满信心地看待未来。必威手机登录起泡酒 - 特别是价格合理的起泡酒，甚至更具体的Cava和Prosecco - 正在蓬勃发展。
香槟可能是普通葡萄酒饮用者最熟悉的整体葡萄酒风格，但普罗塞克（Prosecco）的销售率要高得多（30％，比18％）。卡瓦（Cava）占25％，不远，将其与曾经无用的里奥哈（Rioja）共同关联，他的影响力仍然强大，但正在减少。
This is part of a consistent trend, with consumption of red wines declining and prosecco in robust growth. Half of all Swedish wine drinkers have drunk a bottle of the Italian sparkler in the last year, whereas the number for reds has dropped from 90% in 2019 to 83%.
The move towards lighter and sparkling wines and away from fuller-bodied reds is hurting the new world producing countries. Chile, South Africa and Australia are already showing negative growth compared to 2019, and the latest Wine Intelligence report suggests that all three (plus Argentina) will be selling less wine in the country over the next five years.
葡萄牙– already putting in a strong showing at entry level and described by one importer as ‘offering very good, affordable quality’ looks set to cash in.
Another area of likely growth is organic wine. According to the葡萄酒情报全球机会指数，瑞典在其潜力方面排名第二（仅在中国）。在这种情况下，它不仅从整个人口中的健康意识和道德标准中受益，而且从该国最大的零售商是政府经营的事实中受益。
Over 85% of all wine in Swedish retail is sold through the Systembolaget, and the latter has made organic a key priority. Around 80% of Swedish wine drinkers are aware of organic wine, and over 40% bought at least one bottle last year. With a receptive population and the state pushing it, organic wine sales are almost certain to increase going forward.
瑞典的葡萄酒市场一致且建立良好的葡萄酒市场似乎在很大程度上毫发无损地幸存。有一些兴奋的小口袋，适合生长的小区域的范围以及一些早期引起关注的早期原因。恐慌的理由很少，很少有一瓶香槟 - 但谨慎庆祝和定价良好的普罗塞克瓶可能就是这样。
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